Victoria, BC Residential Real Estate Market Report

What the Numbers Are Really Telling Us This Spring

After years of moving quickly and competing hard, Greater Victoria buyers finally have something they have not had in a long time: room to think. Unique, well-priced properties can still attract strong interest and multiple offers, but the broader market has become more measured. In May 2026, Greater Victoria reached its highest inventory level in eleven years, changing the feel of the season for buyers, sellers, and the clients we help navigate it. Here is what the data shows — and what we think it means if you are considering buying or selling in the months ahead.

Where Things Stand — May 2026 at a Glance

Let’s start with the numbers everyone is talking about. The Victoria Real Estate Board (VREB) reported 713 Greater Victoria sales in May — down 5.9% from 758 a year earlier, but up 10.9% from April. To us, that suggests the spring market did arrive this year, just later and more cautiously than usual. Condos saw the biggest slowdown, with sales down nearly 15% year-over-year to 188 units. Single-family homes held up better at 385 sales, down a more modest 4%. Townhomes were the only segment to grow, rising 8.9% to 98 sales — a sign that many buyers are finding the best balance between price and space in that category.

The most important number this month is not sales — it is supply. Active listings reached 4,029 at the end of May, the highest level in eleven years, and that is setting the tone for the market. Unlike some parts of the country, this does not look like a market showing signs of distress. It looks like a market rebalancing, which changes how both buyers and sellers should approach it. What is interesting — and reassuring — is that prices have not fallen in line with sales, even with more inventory. The MLS® HPI benchmark for a single-family home in the Victoria Core was $1,339,000 in May, up 0.3% from a year earlier and only slightly below April’s $1,339,100. Condos were softer, with the benchmark down 1.9% year-over-year to $551,400. Our read: buyers have more choice than they have had in a decade, but they are not seeing deep discounts.

They are seeing more selection, more time to decide, and real room to negotiate, especially on condos.

The picture also varies by area. Oak Bay’s single-family benchmark sits at $1,857,900 — the highest of any sub-area on the board and slightly above last year — suggesting demand for character homes on larger lots remains strong. The Westshore tells a different story: its single-family benchmark fell 2.8% to $1,028,100, likely because the area has more first-time buyers who are highly sensitive to mortgage-rate changes. As borrowing costs move, prices in that segment tend to respond more quickly.

Greater Victoria prices are holding closer to flat, rather than falling as they are in some other BC markets. BCREA’s latest housing forecast supports this view, projecting BC-wide sales to decline 2.1% this year before rebounding 7.7% in 2027, with average prices dipping modestly before recovering. As Brendon Ogmundson, the Chief Economist for the BC Real Estate Association (BCREA), puts it,

“improved affordability in many markets combined with several years of pent-up demand creates conditions for a rebound, though households will likely need a prolonged period of stability to re-enter the market.”

In our view, stability is the key word. Buyers are not waiting for prices to crash; they are waiting to feel confident that conditions are steady.

With political pressure to increase density, clients often ask us about development potential. While multifamily construction has increased and housing starts are up, it’s worth asking where that growth is happening. The honest answer: it is concentrated, not broad-based. CMHC Deputy Chief Economist Aled Ab Iorwerth summarized the national picture in a way that also applies locally:

May’s data showed mixed results. … Construction activity is uneven and, taken together with the decline of approved units not yet started, market intelligence points to weaker momentum for future supply.

— Aled Ab Iorwerth, CMHC Deputy Chief Economist

We’d add one thing for anyone thinking ahead a year or two: if new supply slows the way CMHC expects, the inventory advantage buyers have right now may not stick around forever.

What the Banks Are Saying About Where Rates Go From Here

We get a lot of questions about interest rates, so we want to lay out exactly where things stand. The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% on June 10 — its fifth consecutive hold — and the message was cautious rather than decisive: energy-driven inflation remains a risk, while trade uncertainty and a softer economy argue against tightening too quickly.: a hike if energy-driven inflation tied to the conflict in the Middle East sticks around, or a cut if US tariff pressure ends up hurting the economy more. CPI inflation rose to 2.8% in April, driven by energy prices and the way the earlier carbon-tax removal is now moving through the annual comparison, while core inflation measures have moved back toward roughly 2%.

Here’s the part that surprises a lot of people: even with the policy rate on hold, fixed mortgage rates have been creeping higher, because they track bond yields rather than the overnight rate directly. That’s exactly what Ogmundson means by an “unexpected headwind” — rates aren’t dropping the way many buyers were hoping, even though the Bank of Canada hasn’t raised anything itself.

Putting all this together, here’s our take: Victoria right now is a calmer, more balanced version of what’s happening across BC. stand out to us: well-located detached homes, especially in places like Oak Bay and the Core, are holding their value because there genuinely isn’t much comparable inventory to compete with.

Condos are the segment under the most pressure, both in resale and in new construction, and we don’t expect that to change quickly given what CMHC is forecasting for pre-sales over the next couple of years.

If you’re buying in a more first-time-buyer-heavy area like the Westshore, you’re likely to find more room to negotiate, because that segment is more sensitive to financing costs. New supply is coming, but unevenly, we wouldn’t assume the inventory advantage buyers have right now will simply keep building at the same pace.

If you’re buying, our advice is simple: take your time, but don’t assume rates are about to drop and bail you out, they might not. If you’re selling, price to today’s market, not to what your neighbour’s house sold for back in 2022. We’ve seen it ourselves this spring: homes priced honestly are still moving, and the ones that aren’t are usually the ones testing the market with an aspirational number.

If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or simply want a clearer picture of how your specific neighbourhood is performing, we’re happy to put together a tailored, no-pressure comparative market analysis.

Warm regards,
Audra & Robert
The Victoria Pros Real Estate Team

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For more statistics on the Victoria real estate market – click on the links in the following boxes for the latest reports and data from the Victoria Real Estate Board, the British Columbia Real Estate Association, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation and the Canadian Real Estate Association.